Football, SEO and a little bit about Tom Nash really…

The tactics and starting 11 of the England National team are topics sure to ignite debate from football lovers across the country. One aspect questioned more commonly than most is: “who should partner Wayne Rooney up-front?” From the offset I should make it clear that – as with any football fan – I have my favourite players and English strikers are no exception. However, for the sake of impartiality I will try and keep my opinions out of the equation as we try and answer this conundrum…

This post analyses the league form of 3 front-runners for an England starting spot (Heskey, Defoe, Bent) in addition to another player who may or may not have been unfairly overlooked – Kevin Davies. The domestic form of the past 4 seasons is used as it is a player’s form in the Premier League this season which will most likely contribute to their gaining a place on the plane destined for South Africa next Summer. All statistics are sourced from the Premier League website.

The first interesting point of call is the cumulative number of minutes played by each athlete over the last four years. This is in fact a very important consideration for Fabio Capello when choosing his final squad. Much has been made of Rio Ferdinand’s current plight with injury and whether he could cope with the demanding world cup schedule. The same scrutiny is levelled at every constituent of the 23 man squad.

This graph clearly demonstrates a large distinction between the amount of playing time Kevin Davies (at the top of the scale) and Jermaine Defoe (at the bottom) have had over the course of the last 4 seasons. An England striker would expect to be a first team regular at both international and domestic level; and so playing time could vaguely signify a player’s suitablility for an England starting berth. However, I think it is important to consider the pedigree and competition within clubs for which the striker’s have (and do) play for. Jermaine Defoe’s playing prospects have long been at the mercy of the Tottenham hierarchy and their habit of buying far too many strikers. For long spells Defoe has found his time on the pitch constrained by managers trying to keep 4 top quality strikers happy. Darren Bent was to suffer the same fate until his well timed exit from White Hart Lane, which has seen the striker in sensational form since. Now that Defoe, Bent and Davies are first team regulars for their prospective clubs, this is their moment to stake a claim. Unfortunately the same cannot be said of Emile Heskey. He has struggled to break into the first team at Villa Park and has picked up a couple of niggling injuries to slow his progress. Drastic changes are necessary if he wishes to touchdown in Cape Town next June.

The second piece of analysis covers the direct goal contribution per striker in each of the last four seasons. ‘Direct contibution’ is defined as either scoring or attaining an assist for a goal. Any successful striker needs to provide both in order to play at the highest level and so this metric cannot be ignored when inspecting a striker’s international merits. As Emile Heskey is the current occupant of the number 10 England jersey, all contibutions are indexed against his performance over the last four years. Contibutions are a culmination of ‘goals plus assits’ per minute played.

This is where heads begin to roll. There is a chasm between the contribution towards team goals for Heskey and his counterparts, especially this season. To date the season, Heskey has played 336 minutes for Aston Villa and has the paltry sum of 1 assist to show for it. Defoe has played over twice as much football (735 minutes) but has already scored 6 goals and has 2 assists to his name. The same is true of Darren Bent, of all the strikers in question he has played the most, totalling 1062 minutes, but he has yielded results: weighing in with 8 goals and 4 assists.

The most common counter-action to such criticism and analysis of Heskey is that he provides more for his team than just goals, seconded by the ancheint adage: “he brings others into the play”. Although clichéd I think this is very true of “big-man” strikers who can act as a foil to others who focus on scoring the goals. But the fact is that goals win matches and I don’t think a player should qualify for an England place based on the merits of footballing proverbs alone. Kevin Davies has been an all-but ever-present for Bolton this year contributing 5 assists and 2 goals. All the more impressive when considering he is pigeon-holed as the same kind of “target-man” as Heskey – whilst offering a far greater ROI.

Closing Comments

Based on the current players available for England duty, I think England need to play with a target man up front in combination with Wayne Rooney. The efforts and the effectiveness of Heskey are clear for all to see, but the question is: does he has the all round game to play at the highest level? I don’t think so. For such a role, someone with a proven track record of scoring goals in addition to “team-play”, is necessary. Based on statistics alone it seems Kevin Davies is the man to fill such illustrious boots. Neither Bent nor Defoe have the physique and style to perform such a job and so it seems Englands only other option is Peter Crouch. Peter’s International record speaks for itself but for the purpose of this research he is cursed with the same problem Heskey is – no starting spot for his club.

Bent and Defoe are the strikers on form in terms of raw goals and assists but their cause is ill-fated as the national team require more than goals alone. Neither could hope to displace Rooney and so they are destined to scrap over the same substitute spot, hoping to get the chance to shine on the World’s greatest footballing stage.

Tom Nash